Sunday, August 28, 2011

Insights from Rich Dad’s Retire Young Retire Rich Book

I can identify with Robert tips on how to retire young and rich: in this book page 500, he mentioned that a person must decide to be rich daily and find a loved ones who wants to go on the journey with you. In year 2000, I decided to be rich and that is the reason I went into selling life insurance. If not for that, I doubt I will meet the Citibank banker who advised me to read Peter Lynch’s book. Without reading Peter Lynch book, I doubt I will ever learn about fundamental investing. Without this, I believe I will miss the stock rally in year 2004-07. In year 2001-05, I have life partner and friends who does not want to go on the journey of retiring rich with me. Today, I found my loved one who wanted to be on this journey with me. Without my loved ones, I wondered what and where will I be today. Somehow, friend and loved ones who does not want to be on this journey drifted away one reason or another. Life is uncanny.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

1995 Desaru investors

I did a search in google using “1995 investors in desaru condo” and the two stark contrast results came out. One was a story on Desaru bright future multi-billion ringgit plans in year 2011. Another was the sad story of Desaru investors who lost money in 1995. The path to financial freedom is littered with poor and rotten investments. If one is not careful, he will likely lose his pants and hopefully not his heart. Please heed the lesson behind these two posts. Anything that is highly touted and well-advertised to the retail investor is unlikely to be a great investment. Look at the investors who paid in full to purchase a condominium that was half completed. They never get their money back. This was sold in Suntec city to the working professionals. I wondered whether the people behind it are being served justice.

Mega multi-billion ringgit development project for Desaru
________________________________________

The 1.7km single-plane cable-styled bridge across Sungai Johor.
JOHOR BARU: The Government’s investment arm, Khazanah Nasional Bhd, will unveil a multi-billion ringgit development plan for Desaru this year.
Sources told StarBiz Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is expected to launch the project in Desaru either in the third or fourth quarter.
The project will be undertaken by Khazanah’s wholly-owned subsidiary Desaru Development Corp Sdn Bhd (DDC) which it acquired in 2010, inclusive of the latter’s 1,618ha.
In the pipeline for the development is the building of two international class hotels to be managed by two of the world’s renowned hotel management companies and a world-class golf course.

At the same time, another search result for desaru 1995 came out in a forum:
Just got this from archive news report in 2000, about Impian Desaru now Lotus Desaru. Must be trying for the 200 singaporean investor. Dont know what happen to their investment?

200 Singaporeans are among 793 home-buyers who might lose their investments after the Malaysian project's developer wound up
MORE than 200 Singaporeans who bought units in a Desaru condominium, hoping it would be a sound investment, are left in the lurch after its developer wound up last week.

They are among 793 owners who may lose their units if a Malaysian court rules next month that the homes have to be auctioned to pay off the developer's creditors.
Each unit in the condominium, named Desaru Impian Resort and owned by Ghahas (M) Sdn Bhd, cost between RM215,000 ($93,000) and RM615,000 ($267,000).
Besides the Singaporeans, the remaining owners are Malaysians. Ninety per cent of the owners paid up full in cash, said businessman James Chang who represents a group of owners here.

About 160 owners from the two countries have got together to hire a lawyer to retain their units, he said.
The developer is believed to owe at least $20 million to the bank, contractors and buyers, he said.
Touted as the first beach-front condominium built like a theme park in Desaru, the resort-like property's launch here - held at Suntec City in 1995 - attracted many professionals.
It had looked a highly-attractive buy, said Mr Chang. "It was to come with facilities and it was close to Singapore."
But the developer failed to keep his promise. It was supposed to have been completed in 1998, but half of it has not been built.
A computer analyst, who bought a two-bedroom unit for $338,000, said he was promised a guaranteed return of about $34,000 every year for five years if he leased it back to Ghahas to be used as a tourist hotel.
He did that, but until now, he has not been given the key to the unit or the promised cheques. His unit is also not furnished as promised.
The theme park, which was to come with slides, carousels and river rides in front of his block, is nowhere to be seen.
He said: "They are not paying us rent, they have not given us the key, but they are still renting out the units to tourists."
Mr Chang, who bought two units, has pictures of the condominium.
Some units are without air-conditioners. Besides some built-in cabinets, his apartment is also not furnished.
He said while the group is trying to hold on to the units, it also hopes to be compensated for the rent promised by the developer but never paid to the owners.
"But the theme park, I doubt we can get it," he said.

How not to catch a falling knife?

I read an interesting post in forum today on how to avoid catching a falling knife. Please allow me to share my experience. In year October 2008, I read Warren Buffet’s advice that it is time to buy stocks because he noted that seasoned investors are afraid that the economy is going to collapse.

Heeding his valuable advice, I immediately researched a stock that I knew is going to do extremely well in year 2009. This stock is Ho Bee. In a quick summary, the important numbers are Net asset value, 80 cents, share price 38 cents, market value about $200 Million, company has a few projects fully sold like The Coast in Sentosa expecting to TOP in year 2009. That is when I got excited because the projects will generate estimated $900 Million in revenue. Based on net profit of 30%, Ho Bee will likely generate a profit of $250 Million for year 2009. The next figure is what keeps me excited. That gives Ho Bee a PE of 1. What can I lose if the PE is 1 and I m buying at 38 cents at 80 cents net asset value? I decided to buy in December.

In addition, I urged my brother and mother to buy Ho Bee as well. But they commented that it is too risky to buy when the economy is collapsing. After I purchased at 38 cents in December 2008, I thought the share price will rebound in January. My god! More bad news followed, and the stock market tanked further. Ho bee was not spared and it fell 30% to 29 cents. That is when I should buy more. I hold on to my stocks and was actually worried that my brother prediction could be right. I also chided myself as I have utilized most of my funds with a couple of thousands left.

In February, I looked at US regional banks in an attempt to emulate Peter Lynch performance in buying Savings and Loans in year 1990. Some of the banks like Fifth third Bank and Huntington Bank have insiders buying at $2 or $3 and the share price fell to $1. I was excited about this banks. What can I lose when I buy at half the price of insiders? Due to lack of funds, I spent two thousands dollars to buy US banks. In March, the economy suddenly rebounded due to the QE measures by the FED. I was vindicated. What a relief. For a moment, I thought, my brother is right in the economy going to fail and all stocks will fall to zero. Thank god, things eventually turned out right. Ho Bee rose from 29 cents to $1.80 in year 2010. The US banks like Fifth Third rose from $1 to $12 in a year or so. Wow!

Peter Lynch is right. He mentioned that it is best to wait 2-3 years (sometimes even longer) and let things fall and then hit the ground and vibrate for a while before picking it up. It is great advice.