Monday, August 23, 2010

Contradicting government policies

There are many of them. One of them is the government encouragement for Singaporean to have more babies. I wondered how they can have more babies when flat prices are expensive even for a graduate couple. Then there is childcare that cost $1,000 per month which is easily half of a graduate salary. Another is government wanted to reduce traffic jam by placing ERP along roads. The key question is why create this problem by issuing so many COEs to Singaporean. The government encouraged senior citizens to work till 60s but they took jobs away by attracting foreigners here. I find it strange that the government has acted this way. The government encouraged ex-convicts to work and yet I suspect many HR managers in government sectors will reject these ex-convicts.

I hope for a deep recession

You may call me a bad guy for wishing a deeper downturn. I feel that it is good for the economy on the whole as it will weed out non-performing workers, businesses, products and services. In many places, I saw many workers with poor attitude, services and poor quality products. They could be local or foreign workers, working in retail outlets to cleaners. It is time for these non-performing workers and products and services to go. Therefore, I hope for a deep recession to improve the products and services in the economy.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Does Lady bankers skirts have to be so short?

This afternoon at a coffeeshop in Bishan , I saw 2 ladies with very short skirts walking past. They could be bankers from the nearby banks or other sales agents. I wondered why they need to wear such short skirts. One of the ladies skirts is so short that she keeps adjusting it to cover more of her long legs.

Maybe they need to dress skimpily to drum up more business. Perhaps they love the attention that it gathered. To me their dress code borders on the type we seen at red light district. It is totally unprofessional and unacceptable. How do their customers control themselves? Who can say no to their sales pitch?

A leading indicator of the economy

I have tried many ways to find a reliable leading indicator of the economy. When this idea flashed in my mind, I did not expect the clue to be so near me. As I travelled around Bishan, I found that many cars are idling in the car park at 9am. The number of idle cars occupied about 30-40 percent of the car park lots. As most people go to work at this time, the car is likely to be idle for the whole day. Owners of these vehicles is most likely cash strapped to spend money on petrol, erp, commercial carparks and have switch to public transport.

In short, they will be paying extra money for road tax and insurance for very little car usage. As their usage is minimum, they will soon realize the cost of the cars outweighed the benefits. Soon, reality bites and they will be forced to sell their cars. If that happen, the car market will be flooded with excess inventory of cars and resale car prices will fall drastically.

The tipping point will be the wave of restructuring by companies to downsize or right size their workforce as the economy falters. If these cars were reduced at the car parks, it will mean that the deleveraging process has begun and sellers have begun to sell their unused cars. This is a watershed and marks the start of the second economic crisis.

During deleveraging, cars will be sold, the last in line will be houses. It is estimated that plenty of people purchased condominium and lived in hdb flats. If interest rate hikes and rental market falls, the people will be faced with a double whammy. For example a couple who live in hdb flat and pays $2,500 per month for the housing installment will find it hard to service the installment when rental market falls to $2,100 per month and interest payment hiked to $3,000 per month. For couples who lost their jobs, their plight will be worst.