My recent trip to Bishan Junction 8 yielded many interesting points. One of them is at a coffeeshop above the bus interchange. This eating place is frequented by many low income retail workers from the mall. It has been chosen last year as an indicator of inflation. The stall I chosen is the popular mixed rice stall. 2 vegetables and 1 meat used to cost $2.50. From 1st march, price has increased by 10cents for each dish and now cost $2.80. This means a 12 percent increase in core food prices as mixed rice is a dishes favoured by hungry workers. I suspect the same thing is happening to the rest of the coffeeshops around Singapore and the rest of the world. I wondered if the financial experts like Mike Maloney (Rich dad adviser) are right that government around the world lie about inflation. I now believe that Mike is right on this issue.
Could the hyper inflation of the 1970s that financial experts warned in 2008 when government worldwide did a Quantitative Easing be coming? Now I suspect hyper inflation is on its way. Perhaps this may not be a big concern if wages increase at the same pace. But my mother-in-law recently found a job in Ang Mo Kio factory. Her wage is $4 per hour. This is even lower than the rate I work in 1992, which is $5.50-6 per hour if my memory did not fail me. Just in case, u think I m working at a high class place, No, it is at a factory in Ang Mo Kio too, though different company I suspect. That means, while prices of food has doubled from $1.50 in year 1992 ( char kwey teow) to $3 now, wages of lower income has stagnated or dropped. How can things be all right for the lower income people?
Besides this, I noted that Charles and Keith at ground floor of J8, an established ladies shoe retailer has closed. As Bishan is a high income housing estate and female residents coming of age in their teens and twenties will likely buy their shoes, I expect business in Charles to be booming. The opposite has happened. My conclusion is business conditions is tough in the next 3 years. This is what the Lee metal Management prognosticated that profit margin will get squeezed as competition intensifies.
I made a recent trip to Bangkok, Thailand and it was a fruitful trip. I noted that prices at street food stall, for eg, a chicken or pork, cost 10 Baht. This translates into 40 cents which is about the same as the price here (50 cents). Strange as I thought the price here in a third world country will be much lower. Although their fried noodle or rice is only 30-40 Baht, about S$1-$2, their quantity is low and hardly filling. I suspect their average wages to be only S$300-400. We concluded that things are not cheap at least for the middle income family in Thailand. My wife and I shopped at many places popular with local like MBK, Pratunam Market, Chatuchak Market, Siam Square, Platinum Fashion Mall, and we only found the biggest bargain at MBK and Platinum fashion mall which is a wholesale market centre for fashion clothes. Overall, we were disappointed with the bargains which our friends told us before the trip. Perhaps prices have increased as time goes.
Could Anthony Robbins predictions in year 2010 be correct? He forecast that the economy will nosedive in this year. He predicted that many who are prepared will be big winners and many more unprepared will be big losers. I hope to be the one prepared. A glance at the stock market, I noted that the volume or value was only $600 million for half day, which means $1.2 Billion for the whole day. This is a far cry from the bull market of 2006-7 when daily market turnover was $4-5 billion. Although the government claimed that the economy has turnaround, the stock market, which is a leading indicator says otherwise. SGX shareholders have better sell before the big sell down which is coming soon.
