I was neutral to all parties before the election. Personally, I was worried too many cooks spoilt the kitchen. After hearing both sides verbal attacks, doubts began to form on the ruling party ability to lead. One of the famous phrase used was “ Despite knowing the perils in walking to a tiger filled mountain, I purposely walked forward”. When someone in an ordinary situation used this phrase, it meant that he or she is moving forward despite the danger ahead. This phrase represents courage. When the ruling elite heard this phrase, they assumed that it meant they were a tiger. Anger was written over their face and it seemed that they were highly irritated over a neutral remark. The wife of the ruling elite added that whoever kill my tiger will be deal with. Aren’t they over reacting on a neutral remark? Then there was the hype over co-driver or pilot. The underdog suggested that if the driver is sleeping on the wheel, the co-driver has to slap the driver awake. I do this all the time to my brother if he drives recklessly. The ruling elite assumed again that the co-driver wanted to tussle with the wheel with the driver. Again, the underdog(or I) never said they wanted to tussle with the wheel. They merely wanted the driver to wake up if they were on the wrong track.
If the analogy was wrong, then as a champion for thirty years, let it go. Why keep harping on such a little comment. It seemed that the ruling elite is unduly concerned with minor issues that the opposition made and claimed that it was a personal attack on their integrity, etc…… well in my humble opinion a true champion would have said “No comments” or ignore those minor comments completely. By responding excessively to such minor comments, it is clear to me that the ruling party is inconfident, unsure and perhaps shaking in fear that their empire is unravelling. Michael Phelps (8 gold medals Olympic winner) did not say the competitors have deeper ambition, lack a plan, do not have any substance or is a celebrity. Luckily he did not say if you support the competitor, you will have to repent. Before his competition, he mind his own business ( listen to his favourite song to perk him up) and relax his muscle. Before his swim, he chat or shake hand with competitors. This is a true champion behavior. Well this is truly a national disgrace to see this level of pettiness in a top management team. They are behaving like kids fighting over a “class chairman” award. HAHA. Amazing.
The ruling elite also accused the underdog that their accounts is messy. If the underdog had thrown similar accusations, they would have lost their pants (bankrupt). HAHA. What an unfair world!
The best part is this. There is a boy who wanted very much to be re-elected as a chairman again. In his term, he was supposed to guard a mad dog who will bite anyone. Due to some strange reasons, he let the dog escaped. Luckily the dog did not bite anyone. But the worst part is, he did not apologise and repent, instead he said “let us move on”. Amazingly, he was not sacked by the teacher. Now when his term expire and he wanted to be re-elected, he apologise to the whole class.
I guess we know who to vote now. Do u?
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Observations in march 2011
My recent trip to Bishan Junction 8 yielded many interesting points. One of them is at a coffeeshop above the bus interchange. This eating place is frequented by many low income retail workers from the mall. It has been chosen last year as an indicator of inflation. The stall I chosen is the popular mixed rice stall. 2 vegetables and 1 meat used to cost $2.50. From 1st march, price has increased by 10cents for each dish and now cost $2.80. This means a 12 percent increase in core food prices as mixed rice is a dishes favoured by hungry workers. I suspect the same thing is happening to the rest of the coffeeshops around Singapore and the rest of the world. I wondered if the financial experts like Mike Maloney (Rich dad adviser) are right that government around the world lie about inflation. I now believe that Mike is right on this issue.
Could the hyper inflation of the 1970s that financial experts warned in 2008 when government worldwide did a Quantitative Easing be coming? Now I suspect hyper inflation is on its way. Perhaps this may not be a big concern if wages increase at the same pace. But my mother-in-law recently found a job in Ang Mo Kio factory. Her wage is $4 per hour. This is even lower than the rate I work in 1992, which is $5.50-6 per hour if my memory did not fail me. Just in case, u think I m working at a high class place, No, it is at a factory in Ang Mo Kio too, though different company I suspect. That means, while prices of food has doubled from $1.50 in year 1992 ( char kwey teow) to $3 now, wages of lower income has stagnated or dropped. How can things be all right for the lower income people?
Besides this, I noted that Charles and Keith at ground floor of J8, an established ladies shoe retailer has closed. As Bishan is a high income housing estate and female residents coming of age in their teens and twenties will likely buy their shoes, I expect business in Charles to be booming. The opposite has happened. My conclusion is business conditions is tough in the next 3 years. This is what the Lee metal Management prognosticated that profit margin will get squeezed as competition intensifies.
I made a recent trip to Bangkok, Thailand and it was a fruitful trip. I noted that prices at street food stall, for eg, a chicken or pork, cost 10 Baht. This translates into 40 cents which is about the same as the price here (50 cents). Strange as I thought the price here in a third world country will be much lower. Although their fried noodle or rice is only 30-40 Baht, about S$1-$2, their quantity is low and hardly filling. I suspect their average wages to be only S$300-400. We concluded that things are not cheap at least for the middle income family in Thailand. My wife and I shopped at many places popular with local like MBK, Pratunam Market, Chatuchak Market, Siam Square, Platinum Fashion Mall, and we only found the biggest bargain at MBK and Platinum fashion mall which is a wholesale market centre for fashion clothes. Overall, we were disappointed with the bargains which our friends told us before the trip. Perhaps prices have increased as time goes.
Could Anthony Robbins predictions in year 2010 be correct? He forecast that the economy will nosedive in this year. He predicted that many who are prepared will be big winners and many more unprepared will be big losers. I hope to be the one prepared. A glance at the stock market, I noted that the volume or value was only $600 million for half day, which means $1.2 Billion for the whole day. This is a far cry from the bull market of 2006-7 when daily market turnover was $4-5 billion. Although the government claimed that the economy has turnaround, the stock market, which is a leading indicator says otherwise. SGX shareholders have better sell before the big sell down which is coming soon.
Could the hyper inflation of the 1970s that financial experts warned in 2008 when government worldwide did a Quantitative Easing be coming? Now I suspect hyper inflation is on its way. Perhaps this may not be a big concern if wages increase at the same pace. But my mother-in-law recently found a job in Ang Mo Kio factory. Her wage is $4 per hour. This is even lower than the rate I work in 1992, which is $5.50-6 per hour if my memory did not fail me. Just in case, u think I m working at a high class place, No, it is at a factory in Ang Mo Kio too, though different company I suspect. That means, while prices of food has doubled from $1.50 in year 1992 ( char kwey teow) to $3 now, wages of lower income has stagnated or dropped. How can things be all right for the lower income people?
Besides this, I noted that Charles and Keith at ground floor of J8, an established ladies shoe retailer has closed. As Bishan is a high income housing estate and female residents coming of age in their teens and twenties will likely buy their shoes, I expect business in Charles to be booming. The opposite has happened. My conclusion is business conditions is tough in the next 3 years. This is what the Lee metal Management prognosticated that profit margin will get squeezed as competition intensifies.
I made a recent trip to Bangkok, Thailand and it was a fruitful trip. I noted that prices at street food stall, for eg, a chicken or pork, cost 10 Baht. This translates into 40 cents which is about the same as the price here (50 cents). Strange as I thought the price here in a third world country will be much lower. Although their fried noodle or rice is only 30-40 Baht, about S$1-$2, their quantity is low and hardly filling. I suspect their average wages to be only S$300-400. We concluded that things are not cheap at least for the middle income family in Thailand. My wife and I shopped at many places popular with local like MBK, Pratunam Market, Chatuchak Market, Siam Square, Platinum Fashion Mall, and we only found the biggest bargain at MBK and Platinum fashion mall which is a wholesale market centre for fashion clothes. Overall, we were disappointed with the bargains which our friends told us before the trip. Perhaps prices have increased as time goes.
Could Anthony Robbins predictions in year 2010 be correct? He forecast that the economy will nosedive in this year. He predicted that many who are prepared will be big winners and many more unprepared will be big losers. I hope to be the one prepared. A glance at the stock market, I noted that the volume or value was only $600 million for half day, which means $1.2 Billion for the whole day. This is a far cry from the bull market of 2006-7 when daily market turnover was $4-5 billion. Although the government claimed that the economy has turnaround, the stock market, which is a leading indicator says otherwise. SGX shareholders have better sell before the big sell down which is coming soon.
Monday, November 8, 2010
November 2010 Connundrum
This is a strange period in the economy. In my latest bank statement, I can see that interest rate is lowered from 1.2% to 1.1%. With the interest rate so low, we would expect the economy to pick up strongly. Yet the real economy appears to be worsening. Personal observations in the public car parks suggest that more cars (compared to 3 months ago) are being left in the car park during working hours. It shows that Singaporeans are too cash tight to even drive to work or there is not enough work for them. This is a conundrum as the stock market trading volume has increased from $2billion in value to $3 billion and there is optimism in the market. It is strange.
No one can predict the direction of the economy. Could the market be walking on thin air?
No one can predict the direction of the economy. Could the market be walking on thin air?
Friday, October 22, 2010
What is a bailout?
Bailout in short is a good name for cover-up.
I used to work for an association. The name will remain anonymous due to sensitive reason. As the management of the association is ineffective, a restructuring specialist was called in to assess the situation and advise on the executive committee. The advice was given in good faith and a change of the senior management is proposed. Due to emotional or resistance to change reasons, the change was opposed by the committee. This is sweeping the mess under the carpet or refusal to face the reality. In such situations, things do not get better. An organization that is resistance to change for the better will drift along instead of sprint ahead.
Have you ever seen a mother scolding a stranger (or kid) when her own child is in the wrong? This is a bailout. The mother (or the larger entity like the US government) does not punish her child (or US banks like Citicorp) when he or she is in the wrong. The mother (US government) chooses to say “let me protect you” and cover up your mistakes (US banks management mistakes). In this case, the government covers up the mistake by giving funds to the banks.
The US banks have preferred bailouts than restructuring their organizations. I wondered how far they can go if the old management is still in charge of the organizations. Jim Rogers overtly feel that the banks should be allowed to go bankrupt. He felt that bailouts delayed the inevitable change that is imperative. Time will tell if Jim Rogers is right.
I used to work for an association. The name will remain anonymous due to sensitive reason. As the management of the association is ineffective, a restructuring specialist was called in to assess the situation and advise on the executive committee. The advice was given in good faith and a change of the senior management is proposed. Due to emotional or resistance to change reasons, the change was opposed by the committee. This is sweeping the mess under the carpet or refusal to face the reality. In such situations, things do not get better. An organization that is resistance to change for the better will drift along instead of sprint ahead.
Have you ever seen a mother scolding a stranger (or kid) when her own child is in the wrong? This is a bailout. The mother (or the larger entity like the US government) does not punish her child (or US banks like Citicorp) when he or she is in the wrong. The mother (US government) chooses to say “let me protect you” and cover up your mistakes (US banks management mistakes). In this case, the government covers up the mistake by giving funds to the banks.
The US banks have preferred bailouts than restructuring their organizations. I wondered how far they can go if the old management is still in charge of the organizations. Jim Rogers overtly feel that the banks should be allowed to go bankrupt. He felt that bailouts delayed the inevitable change that is imperative. Time will tell if Jim Rogers is right.
What will be the state of the economy in 6 months time?
Forecasting is not my strength and i may be wrong. Public car park at Bishan and Toa Payoh shown that 60-70% of vehicles are not utilized at 8.30 in the morning. The percentage of unused vehicles have increased from 30-40% to 60-70% if my eyesight did not fail me. What this means is that more people are choosing to take bus and mrt to work, rather than drive. It also means that people can hardly afford to pay for the ERP gantry charges and parking fees. If another wave of retrenchment comes, reality bites and they will begin to dump their cars in masses. Even if there is no retrenchment, people will find paying road tax and insurance a waste of money and still sell their cars as they hardly use it. Sometimes the rational decision will take longer as the ego and face-saving still prevail in the average Singaporean. But it will come.
Anecdotal evidence shown that established businesses are closing down as the consumer spending wanes. Nearby Miss Clarity Café (2 years operating ) and Middle Curtains (more than 10 years operating) have both closed. All the best to the new businesses that have taken over the space. More and more shops are now “for Rent”. My gut feel is that business conditions are worsening as the weaker players get weeded out.
The sudden slew of large IPOs like GLP and MIT proved that the storm may arrive in 6-9months. As these large players knew that the window of opportunity to sell high is short, they rushed for the listings.
I suspect Mr. Anthony Robbins economic warning could be right. (Pls google “Anthony robbins economic warning”). Please continue to build your ark and stay tough. All the best buddy.
Anecdotal evidence shown that established businesses are closing down as the consumer spending wanes. Nearby Miss Clarity Café (2 years operating ) and Middle Curtains (more than 10 years operating) have both closed. All the best to the new businesses that have taken over the space. More and more shops are now “for Rent”. My gut feel is that business conditions are worsening as the weaker players get weeded out.
The sudden slew of large IPOs like GLP and MIT proved that the storm may arrive in 6-9months. As these large players knew that the window of opportunity to sell high is short, they rushed for the listings.
I suspect Mr. Anthony Robbins economic warning could be right. (Pls google “Anthony robbins economic warning”). Please continue to build your ark and stay tough. All the best buddy.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Is there a second dip coming?
Is there a second recession coming? This is a question economist, fund managers, politicians debate vigorously. Many opposing opinions were given by many experts. Jim Rogers, Anthony Robbins and Roubini claimed that things are going to get much worse. Warren Buffet and Bill Gates countered that better days are ahead for America. I wondered who is right as they are all experts in their fields. I probed deeper to uncover the answer.
My research in the latest financial reports of listed companies showed that most companies in Singapore are cautious about the outlook in the short term. Most used a standard reply similar to Hoe Leong's half year results for the outlook “As the global economy progressively recovers, the Group is encouraged by signs of improving demand in our heavy equipment parts business. However, as the operating environment continues to be challenging, the Group will continue to be cautious and prudently review our business operations and performance, while questions of whether the current recovery is sustainable remain.” I also looked into the latest financial report of US banks like Citicorp and Fifth Third Bank. Citicorp has a few insiders selling shares which showed that probably they feel the stock is overpriced. The next 2 years may be rocky to many others.
Regardless which expert is right, I applied Peter Lynch’s Strategy. That is to ignore the noise in the media and experts opinion and to stay invested in stocks that offer value. Well-managed companies and stocks offered a better return than savings account in the long term. From Rich Dad Prophecy “ if you have a strong financial education, you are not worried about market going up or down. You are just happy that they are going up and down.” As such, I remained invested in my stocks and remained optimistic about the bigger picture that tomorrow will be a better day.
My research in the latest financial reports of listed companies showed that most companies in Singapore are cautious about the outlook in the short term. Most used a standard reply similar to Hoe Leong's half year results for the outlook “As the global economy progressively recovers, the Group is encouraged by signs of improving demand in our heavy equipment parts business. However, as the operating environment continues to be challenging, the Group will continue to be cautious and prudently review our business operations and performance, while questions of whether the current recovery is sustainable remain.” I also looked into the latest financial report of US banks like Citicorp and Fifth Third Bank. Citicorp has a few insiders selling shares which showed that probably they feel the stock is overpriced. The next 2 years may be rocky to many others.
Regardless which expert is right, I applied Peter Lynch’s Strategy. That is to ignore the noise in the media and experts opinion and to stay invested in stocks that offer value. Well-managed companies and stocks offered a better return than savings account in the long term. From Rich Dad Prophecy “ if you have a strong financial education, you are not worried about market going up or down. You are just happy that they are going up and down.” As such, I remained invested in my stocks and remained optimistic about the bigger picture that tomorrow will be a better day.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Contradicting government policies
There are many of them. One of them is the government encouragement for Singaporean to have more babies. I wondered how they can have more babies when flat prices are expensive even for a graduate couple. Then there is childcare that cost $1,000 per month which is easily half of a graduate salary. Another is government wanted to reduce traffic jam by placing ERP along roads. The key question is why create this problem by issuing so many COEs to Singaporean. The government encouraged senior citizens to work till 60s but they took jobs away by attracting foreigners here. I find it strange that the government has acted this way. The government encouraged ex-convicts to work and yet I suspect many HR managers in government sectors will reject these ex-convicts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)